Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Sun, Dec 13 · 12:00pm CT · M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD · FOX12:00pm CT
TB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · NFC South · 0-2 · Away
FPI -1.1 · rank -0.667 · No nflverse EPA
+6 (-110)
+210
BAL
Baltimore Ravens · AFC North · 1-1 · Home
FPI 4.1 · rank 3.424 · No nflverse EPA
-6 (-110)
-258
M&T Bank Stadium at kickoff: 50°F, wind 11 mph, gusts 24 mph, 14% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
BAL -6
BAL -6 (-110)
TB +6 (-110)
TB +6 (-110)
Model
BAL -7.6
Edge 1.6 pts BAL
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
BAL
BAL -258 · TB +210
Total 48.5 — no O/U pick
Total 48.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- BAL rating 4.1, TB rating -1.1.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to BAL.
- Predicted margin is BAL by 7.6.
- Edge is 1.6 points toward BAL.
- Edge 1.6 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 5.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is BAL, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
TB
- Lvs CLE 23-19 · Sun, Sep 20
- L@ CIN 33-27 · Sun, Sep 13
- L@ JAX 19-0 · Fri, Aug 28
- Wvs KC 16-15 · Sat, Aug 22
- W@ NYJ 24-16 · Fri, Aug 14
BAL
- Lvs NO 24-17 · Sun, Sep 20
- W@ IND 41-23 · Sun, Sep 13
- Wvs WSH 41-3 · Fri, Aug 28
- W@ MIN 13-3 · Sat, Aug 22
- Wvs PHI 24-7 · Sat, Aug 15
Injuries
- QuestionableChris Moore · Baltimore Ravens
- QuestionableRonnie Stanley · Baltimore Ravens
- QuestionableZion Young · Baltimore Ravens
- QuestionableJohn Simpson · Baltimore Ravens
- QuestionableMalaki Starks · Baltimore Ravens
- QuestionableRueben Bain Jr. · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- QuestionableJosiah Trotter · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- QuestionableAnthony Nelson · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Injured ReserveJosh Hayes · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Injured ReserveMohamed Kamara · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Edge 1.6 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 5.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.