Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Sun, Dec 13 · 12:00pm CT · Ford Field · Detroit, MI · FOX · Indoor12:00pm CT
TEN
Tennessee Titans · AFC South · 0-2 · Away
FPI -4.7 · rank -3.123 · No nflverse EPA
+7.5 (-110)
+285
DET
Detroit Lions · NFC North · 1-1 · Home
FPI 2.3 · rank 3.418 · No nflverse EPA
-7.5 (-110)
-360
Ford Field is a dome. No weather in the number, and none on this card.Weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
DET -7.5
DET -7.5 (-110)
TEN +7.5 (-110)
TEN +7.5 (-110)
Model
DET -9.4
Edge 1.9 pts DET
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
DET
DET -360 · TEN +285
Total 47.5 — no O/U pick
Total 47.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- DET rating 2.3, TEN rating -4.7.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to DET.
- Predicted margin is DET by 9.4.
- Edge is 1.9 points toward DET.
- Edge 1.9 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is DET, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
TEN
- Lvs PHI 24-20 · Sun, Sep 20
- Lvs NYJ 23-10 · Sun, Sep 13
- Lvs CHI 24-15 · Sat, Aug 29
- Wvs SEA 19-16 · Sun, Aug 23
- W@ SF 19-13 · Thu, Aug 13
DET
- L@ BUF 41-31 · Thu, Sep 17
- Wvs NO 31-30 OT · Sun, Sep 13
- W@ IND 25-16 · Sat, Aug 29
- Wvs WSH 17-13 · Sat, Aug 22
- L@ CIN 16-14 · Thu, Aug 13
Injuries
- QuestionableTate Ratledge · Detroit Lions
- QuestionableAhmed Hassanein · Detroit Lions
- QuestionableThomas Harper · Detroit Lions
- QuestionableBen Bartch · Detroit Lions
- Injured ReserveAvonte Maddox · Detroit Lions
- QuestionableCor'Dale Flott · Tennessee Titans
- QuestionableTony Pollard · Tennessee Titans
- QuestionableTyjae Spears · Tennessee Titans
- QuestionableSolomon Thomas · Tennessee Titans
- Injured ReserveMilo Eifler · Tennessee Titans
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Edge 1.9 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.