Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Sun, Dec 13 · 7:20pm CT · Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI · NBC7:20pm CT
BUF
Buffalo Bills · AFC East · 2-0 · Away
FPI 5.7 · rank 6.314 · No nflverse EPA
+1.5 (-110)
+105
GB
Green Bay Packers · NFC North · 1-1 · Home
FPI 0.5 · rank 0.913 · No nflverse EPA
-1.5 (-110)
-125
Lambeau Field at kickoff: 42°F, wind 12 mph, gusts 23 mph, 18% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
GB -1.5
GB -1.5 (-110)
BUF +1.5 (-110)
BUF +1.5 (-110)
Model
BUF -2.8
Edge 4.3 pts BUF
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
BUF
GB -125 · BUF +105
Total 49.5 — no O/U pick
Total 49.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- GB rating 0.5, BUF rating 5.7.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to GB.
- Predicted margin is BUF by 2.8.
- Edge is 4.3 points toward BUF.
- Edge 4.3 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -5.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is BUF, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
BUF
- Wvs DET 41-31 · Thu, Sep 17
- W@ HOU 36-31 · Sun, Sep 13
- Wvs PIT 28-27 · Thu, Aug 27
- W@ CLE 31-7 · Sat, Aug 22
- Wvs CAR 29-14 · Sat, Aug 15
GB
- W@ NYJ 20-17 OT · Sun, Sep 20
- L@ MIN 39-22 · Sun, Sep 13
- Wvs ARI 42-38 · Fri, Aug 28
- W@ DEN 33-13 · Fri, Aug 21
- L@ PIT 28-9 · Thu, Aug 13
Injuries
- OutAaron Banks · Green Bay Packers
- OutWarren Brinson · Green Bay Packers
- QuestionableJavon Hargrave · Green Bay Packers
- OutJayden Reed · Green Bay Packers
- OutZach Bako-Bewele · Green Bay Packers
- QuestionableEd Oliver · Buffalo Bills
- QuestionableKeon Coleman · Buffalo Bills
- QuestionableT.J. Sanders · Buffalo Bills
- QuestionableAr'maj Reed-Adams · Buffalo Bills
- QuestionableJordan Hancock · Buffalo Bills
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Edge 4.3 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -5.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.