Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Sat, Dec 19 · 7:20pm CT · Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY · CBS7:20pm CT
CHI
Chicago Bears · NFC North · 1-1 · Away
FPI -0.5 · rank -1.034 · No nflverse EPA
+3.5 (-110)
+154
BUF
Buffalo Bills · AFC East · 2-0 · Home
FPI 5.7 · rank 6.314 · No nflverse EPA
-3.5 (-110)
-185
Highmark Stadium at kickoff: 39°F, wind 12 mph, gusts 22 mph, 25% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
BUF -3.5
BUF -3.5 (-110)
CHI +3.5 (-110)
CHI +3.5 (-110)
Model
BUF -8.6
Edge 5.1 pts BUF
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
BUF
BUF -185 · CHI +154
Total 51.5 — no O/U pick
Total 51.5 — no O/U pick
CallLean
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- BUF rating 5.7, CHI rating -0.5.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to BUF.
- Predicted margin is BUF by 8.6.
- Edge is 5.1 points toward BUF.
- Edge 5.1 pts vs the posted number. (Rating gap 6.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is BUF, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
CHI
- Lvs MIN 9-3 · Sun, Sep 20
- W@ CAR 59-37 · Sun, Sep 13
- W@ TEN 24-15 · Sat, Aug 29
- L@ CIN 27-9 · Sat, Aug 22
- Wvs CLE 34-10 · Sat, Aug 15
BUF
- Wvs DET 41-31 · Thu, Sep 17
- W@ HOU 36-31 · Sun, Sep 13
- Wvs PIT 28-27 · Thu, Aug 27
- W@ CLE 31-7 · Sat, Aug 22
- Wvs CAR 29-14 · Sat, Aug 15
Injuries
- QuestionableEd Oliver · Buffalo Bills
- QuestionableKeon Coleman · Buffalo Bills
- QuestionableT.J. Sanders · Buffalo Bills
- QuestionableAr'maj Reed-Adams · Buffalo Bills
- QuestionableJordan Hancock · Buffalo Bills
- Injured ReserveAnthony Johnson Jr. · Chicago Bears
- OutShemar Turner · Chicago Bears
- OutNoah Sewell · Chicago Bears
- QuestionableKyle Monangai · Chicago Bears
- QuestionableTyson Bagent · Chicago Bears
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Writes this spread into the ledger. Closing-line value stays blank.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.