Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Dec 20 · 12:00pm CT · Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD · FOX12:00pm CT
ATL
Atlanta Falcons · NFC South · 0-2 · Away
FPI -5.2 · rank -4.52 · No nflverse EPA
+3.5 (-110)
+154
WSH
Washington Commanders · NFC East · 0-2 · Home
FPI -3.2 · rank -1.419 · No nflverse EPA
-3.5 (-110)
-185
Northwest Stadium at kickoff: 49°F, wind 11 mph, gusts 24 mph, 11% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
WSH -3.5
WSH -3.5 (-110)
ATL +3.5 (-110)
Model
WSH -4.4
Edge 0.9 pts WSH
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
WSH
WSH -185 · ATL +154
Total 46.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • WSH rating -3.2, ATL rating -5.2.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to WSH.
  • Predicted margin is WSH by 4.4.
  • Edge is 0.9 points toward WSH.
  • Edge 0.9 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is WSH, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

ATL

FPI -5.2 · rank -4.52 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs CAR 34-3 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ PIT 20-13 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. W@ MIA 17-12 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. W@ IND 34-6 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Lvs DEN 27-7 · Fri, Aug 14

WSH

FPI -3.2 · rank -1.419 · No nflverse EPA

  1. L@ DAL 37-20 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ PHI 24-22 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. L@ BAL 41-3 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. L@ DET 17-13 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Wvs MIA 20-7 · Fri, Aug 14

Injuries

  • QuestionableJeremy Reaves · Washington Commanders
  • QuestionableLeo Chenal · Washington Commanders
  • QuestionableFrankie Luvu · Washington Commanders
  • QuestionableCharles Omenihu · Washington Commanders
  • QuestionableTyler Owens · Washington Commanders
  • OutSamson Ebukam · Atlanta Falcons
  • QuestionableBilly Bowman Jr. · Atlanta Falcons
  • Injured ReserveA.J. Terrell Jr. · Atlanta Falcons
  • Injured ReserveDa'Shawn Hand · Atlanta Falcons
  • Injured ReserveCameron Williams · Atlanta Falcons

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 0.9 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML