Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Dec 20 · 12:00pm CT · Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL · FOX12:00pm CT
NO
New Orleans Saints · NFC South · 1-1 · Away
FPI -0.6 · rank -0.444 · No nflverse EPA
+3.5 (-110)
+164
TB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · NFC South · 0-2 · Home
FPI -1.1 · rank -0.667 · No nflverse EPA
-3.5 (-110)
-198
Raymond James Stadium at kickoff: 80°F, wind 7 mph, gusts 7 mph, 47% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
TB -3.5
TB -3.5 (-110)
NO +3.5 (-110)
Model
TB -1.9
Edge 1.6 pts NO
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
TB -198 · NO +164
Total 45.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • TB rating -1.1, NO rating -0.6.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to TB.
  • Predicted margin is TB by 1.9.
  • Edge is 1.6 points toward NO.
  • Edge 1.6 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -0.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

NO

FPI -0.6 · rank -0.444 · No nflverse EPA

  1. W@ BAL 24-17 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ DET 31-30 OT · Sun, Sep 13
  3. W@ DAL 27-24 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. L@ LAR 34-0 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Lvs JAX 24-20 · Sat, Aug 15

TB

FPI -1.1 · rank -0.667 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs CLE 23-19 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ CIN 33-27 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. L@ JAX 19-0 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Wvs KC 16-15 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. W@ NYJ 24-16 · Fri, Aug 14

Injuries

  • QuestionableRueben Bain Jr. · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • QuestionableJosiah Trotter · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • QuestionableAnthony Nelson · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Injured ReserveJosh Hayes · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Injured ReserveMohamed Kamara · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • QuestionableChristen Miller · New Orleans Saints
  • QuestionableChase Young · New Orleans Saints
  • QuestionableJonas Sanker · New Orleans Saints
  • Injured ReserveKelvin Banks Jr. · New Orleans Saints
  • QuestionableNathan Shepherd · New Orleans Saints

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 1.6 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -0.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.