Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Mon, Dec 21 · 7:15pm CT · Arrowhead Stadium · Kansas City, MO · ESPN7:15pm CT
NE
New England Patriots · AFC East · 1-1 · Away
FPI 2 · rank 0.447 · No nflverse EPA
+2.5 (-110)
+120
KC
Kansas City Chiefs · AFC West · 2-0 · Home
FPI 4.5 · rank 2.961 · No nflverse EPA
-2.5 (-110)
-142
Arrowhead at kickoff: 53°F, wind 6 mph, gusts 7 mph, 5% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
KC -2.5
KC -2.5 (-110)
NE +2.5 (-110)
Model
KC -4.8
Edge 2.3 pts KC
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
KC
KC -142 · NE +120
Total 45.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • KC rating 4.5, NE rating 2.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to KC.
  • Predicted margin is KC by 4.8.
  • Edge is 2.3 points toward KC.
  • Edge 2.3 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 2.4; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is KC, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

NE

FPI 2 · rank 0.447 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs PIT 20-3 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ SEA 13-10 · Wed, Sep 9
  3. L@ CLE 37-13 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. Wvs PHI 24-21 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Tvs IND 13-13 · Thu, Aug 13

KC

FPI 4.5 · rank 2.961 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs IND 33-30 OT · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs DEN 31-10 · Mon, Sep 14
  3. Tvs SEA 9-9 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. L@ TB 16-15 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Lvs LAR 20-12 · Sat, Aug 15

Injuries

  • QuestionableL'Jarius Sneed · Kansas City Chiefs
  • QuestionableChris Jones · Kansas City Chiefs
  • QuestionableFelix Anudike-Uzomah · Kansas City Chiefs
  • Injured ReserveCooper McDonald · Kansas City Chiefs
  • OutOmarr Norman-Lott · Kansas City Chiefs
  • Injured ReserveDell Pettus · New England Patriots
  • OutBrenden Schooler · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableEli Raridon · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableReggie Gilliam · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableMorgan Moses · New England Patriots

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 2.3 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 2.4; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML