Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Thu, Dec 24 · 7:15pm CT · Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA · Prime Video7:15pm CT
HOU
Houston Texans · AFC South · 0-2 · Away
FPI 0.9 · rank -0.982 · No nflverse EPA
+2.5 (-112)
+114
PHI
Philadelphia Eagles · NFC East · 2-0 · Home
FPI 1.5 · rank 0.641 · No nflverse EPA
-2.5 (-108)
-135
Lincoln Financial Field at kickoff: 50°F, wind 10 mph, gusts 22 mph, 11% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
PHI -2.5
PHI -2.5 (-108)
HOU +2.5 (-112)
HOU +2.5 (-112)
Model
PHI -3
Edge 0.5 pts PHI
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
PHI
PHI -135 · HOU +114
Total 37.5 — no O/U pick
Total 37.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- PHI rating 1.5, HOU rating 0.9.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to PHI.
- Predicted margin is PHI by 3.
- Edge is 0.5 points toward PHI.
- Edge 0.5 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 0.6; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is PHI, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
HOU
- Lvs CIN 20-6 · Sun, Sep 20
- Lvs BUF 36-31 · Sun, Sep 13
- L@ CAR 16-13 · Fri, Aug 28
- Lvs LV 22-20 · Thu, Aug 20
- Lvs LAC 27-7 · Thu, Aug 13
PHI
- W@ TEN 24-20 · Sun, Sep 20
- Wvs WSH 24-22 · Sun, Sep 13
- Lvs CIN 30-13 · Fri, Aug 28
- L@ NE 24-21 · Sat, Aug 22
- L@ BAL 24-7 · Sat, Aug 15
Injuries
- QuestionableJonathan Greenard · Philadelphia Eagles
- DoubtfulDallas Goedert · Philadelphia Eagles
- QuestionableSaquon Barkley · Philadelphia Eagles
- Injured ReserveLandon Dickerson · Philadelphia Eagles
- Injured ReserveEli Stowers · Philadelphia Eagles
- OutM.J. Stewart · Houston Texans
- QuestionableLogan Hall · Houston Texans
- QuestionableTrent Brown · Houston Texans
- QuestionableNico Collins · Houston Texans
- QuestionableJake Hummel · Houston Texans
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Edge 0.5 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 0.6; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.