Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Fri, Dec 25 · 3:30pm CT · Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO · Netflix3:30pm CT
BUF
Buffalo Bills · AFC East · 2-0 · Away
FPI 5.7 · rank 6.314 · No nflverse EPA
-1.5 (-115)
-130
DEN
Denver Broncos · AFC West · 1-1 · Home
FPI -0.3 · rank -1.675 · No nflverse EPA
+1.5 (-105)
+110
Empower Field at kickoff: 82°F, wind 5 mph, gusts 9 mph, 3% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
BUF -1.5
DEN +1.5 (-105)
BUF -1.5 (-115)
Model
BUF -3.5
Edge 2.1 pts BUF
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
BUF
DEN +110 · BUF -130
Total 46.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • DEN rating -0.3, BUF rating 5.7.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to DEN.
  • Predicted margin is BUF by 3.6.
  • Edge is 2.1 points toward BUF.
  • Edge 2.1 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -5.9; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is BUF, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

BUF

FPI 5.7 · rank 6.314 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs DET 41-31 · Thu, Sep 17
  2. W@ HOU 36-31 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Wvs PIT 28-27 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. W@ CLE 31-7 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Wvs CAR 29-14 · Sat, Aug 15

DEN

FPI -0.3 · rank -1.675 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs JAX 20-13 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ KC 31-10 · Mon, Sep 14
  3. Wvs MIN 34-6 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Lvs GB 33-13 · Fri, Aug 21
  5. W@ ATL 27-7 · Fri, Aug 14

Injuries

  • QuestionableMarvin Mims Jr. · Denver Broncos
  • QuestionableJonah Coleman · Denver Broncos
  • QuestionableRJ Harvey · Denver Broncos
  • QuestionableJ.K. Dobbins · Denver Broncos
  • OutJonathon Cooper · Denver Broncos
  • QuestionableEd Oliver · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableKeon Coleman · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableT.J. Sanders · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableAr'maj Reed-Adams · Buffalo Bills
  • QuestionableJordan Hancock · Buffalo Bills

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 2.1 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -5.9; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

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