Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Sat, Dec 26 · 11:00pm CT · Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA11:00pm CT
CAR
Carolina Panthers · NFC South · 1-1 · Away
FPI -1.4 · rank -0.828 · No nflverse EPA
+3.5 (-110)
+160
PIT
Pittsburgh Steelers · AFC North · 1-1 · Home
FPI -2.8 · rank -3.731 · No nflverse EPA
-3.5 (-110)
-192
Acrisure Stadium at kickoff: 42°F, wind 8 mph, gusts 20 mph, 16% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
PIT -3.5
PIT -3.5 (-110)
CAR +3.5 (-110)
CAR +3.5 (-110)
Model
PIT -1
Edge 2.5 pts CAR
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
PIT -192 · CAR +160
Total 41.5 — no O/U pick
Total 41.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- PIT rating -2.8, CAR rating -1.4.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to PIT.
- Predicted margin is PIT by 1.
- Edge is 2.5 points toward CAR.
- Edge 2.5 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -1.4; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
CAR
- W@ ATL 34-3 · Sun, Sep 20
- Lvs CHI 59-37 · Sun, Sep 13
- Wvs HOU 16-13 · Fri, Aug 28
- W@ JAX 34-17 · Fri, Aug 21
- L@ BUF 29-14 · Sat, Aug 15
PIT
- L@ NE 20-3 · Sun, Sep 20
- Wvs ATL 20-13 · Sun, Sep 13
- L@ BUF 28-27 · Thu, Aug 27
- Lvs NYJ 17-0 · Fri, Aug 21
- Wvs GB 28-9 · Thu, Aug 13
Injuries
- QuestionableJamel Dean · Pittsburgh Steelers
- QuestionableJoey Porter Jr. · Pittsburgh Steelers
- QuestionableMichael Pittman Jr. · Pittsburgh Steelers
- QuestionableJaylen Warren · Pittsburgh Steelers
- QuestionableRico Dowdle · Pittsburgh Steelers
- QuestionableJaelan Phillips · Carolina Panthers
- QuestionableNick Scott · Carolina Panthers
- QuestionableDevin Lloyd · Carolina Panthers
- QuestionableJalen Coker · Carolina Panthers
- Injured ReserveJonathon Brooks · Carolina Panthers
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Edge 2.5 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -1.4; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.