Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sat, Dec 26 · 11:00pm CT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA · Indoor11:00pm CT
TB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · NFC South · 0-2 · Away
FPI -1.1 · rank -0.667 · No nflverse EPA
-1.5 (-110)
-125
ATL
Atlanta Falcons · NFC South · 0-2 · Home
FPI -5.2 · rank -4.52 · No nflverse EPA
+1.5 (-110)
+105
Mercedes-Benz Stadium is closed. Weather stays off this card.Weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
TB -1.5
ATL +1.5 (-110)
TB -1.5 (-110)
Model
TB -1.7
Edge 0.2 pts TB
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
ATL +105 · TB -125
Total 45.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • ATL rating -5.2, TB rating -1.1.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to ATL.
  • Predicted margin is TB by 1.7.
  • Edge is 0.2 points toward TB.
  • Edge 0.2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -4.1; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

TB

FPI -1.1 · rank -0.667 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs CLE 23-19 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ CIN 33-27 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. L@ JAX 19-0 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Wvs KC 16-15 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. W@ NYJ 24-16 · Fri, Aug 14

ATL

FPI -5.2 · rank -4.52 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs CAR 34-3 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ PIT 20-13 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. W@ MIA 17-12 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. W@ IND 34-6 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Lvs DEN 27-7 · Fri, Aug 14

Injuries

  • OutSamson Ebukam · Atlanta Falcons
  • QuestionableBilly Bowman Jr. · Atlanta Falcons
  • Injured ReserveA.J. Terrell Jr. · Atlanta Falcons
  • Injured ReserveDa'Shawn Hand · Atlanta Falcons
  • Injured ReserveCameron Williams · Atlanta Falcons
  • QuestionableRueben Bain Jr. · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • QuestionableJosiah Trotter · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • QuestionableAnthony Nelson · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Injured ReserveJosh Hayes · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Injured ReserveMohamed Kamara · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 0.2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -4.1; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.