Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sun, Dec 27 · 3:25pm CT · Arrowhead Stadium · Kansas City, MO · CBS3:25pm CT
SF
San Francisco 49ers · NFC West · 2-0 · Away
FPI 7.3 · rank 6.041 · No nflverse EPA
+3 (-120)
+130
KC
Kansas City Chiefs · AFC West · 2-0 · Home
FPI 4.5 · rank 2.961 · No nflverse EPA
-3 (+100)
-155
Arrowhead at kickoff: 53°F, wind 6 mph, gusts 7 mph, 5% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
KC -3
KC -3 (+100)
SF +3 (-120)
Model
SF -0.5
Edge 3.5 pts SF
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
KC -155 · SF +130
Total 46.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • KC rating 4.5, SF rating 7.3.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to KC.
  • Predicted margin is SF by 0.5.
  • Edge is 3.5 points toward SF.
  • Edge 3.5 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -2.9; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

SF

FPI 7.3 · rank 6.041 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs MIA 35-13 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs LAR 27-7 · Thu, Sep 10
  3. W@ LV 18-12 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. W@ LAC 41-17 · Thu, Aug 20
  5. Lvs TEN 19-13 · Thu, Aug 13

KC

FPI 4.5 · rank 2.961 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs IND 33-30 OT · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs DEN 31-10 · Mon, Sep 14
  3. Tvs SEA 9-9 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. L@ TB 16-15 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Lvs LAR 20-12 · Sat, Aug 15

Injuries

  • QuestionableL'Jarius Sneed · Kansas City Chiefs
  • QuestionableChris Jones · Kansas City Chiefs
  • QuestionableFelix Anudike-Uzomah · Kansas City Chiefs
  • Injured ReserveCooper McDonald · Kansas City Chiefs
  • OutOmarr Norman-Lott · Kansas City Chiefs
  • Injured ReserveC.J. West · San Francisco 49ers
  • QuestionableMike Evans · San Francisco 49ers
  • QuestionableRomello Height · San Francisco 49ers
  • DoubtfulJames Thompson Jr. · San Francisco 49ers
  • OutDemarcus Robinson · San Francisco 49ers

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 3.5 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -2.9; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.