Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Thu, Dec 31 · 7:15pm CT · Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH · Prime Video7:15pm CT
BAL
Baltimore Ravens · AFC North · 1-1 · Away
FPI 4.1 · rank 3.424 · No nflverse EPA
+2.5 (-110)
+114
CIN
Cincinnati Bengals · AFC North · 2-0 · Home
FPI 1.7 · rank 1.717 · No nflverse EPA
-2.5 (-110)
-135
Paycor Stadium at kickoff: 48°F, wind 6 mph, gusts 13 mph, 10% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
CIN -2.5
CIN -2.5 (-110)
BAL +2.5 (-110)
Model
BAL -0.1
Edge 2.6 pts BAL
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
CIN -135 · BAL +114
Total 51.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • CIN rating 1.7, BAL rating 4.1.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to CIN.
  • Predicted margin is BAL by 0.1.
  • Edge is 2.6 points toward BAL.
  • Edge 2.6 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -2.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

BAL

FPI 4.1 · rank 3.424 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs NO 24-17 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. W@ IND 41-23 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Wvs WSH 41-3 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. W@ MIN 13-3 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Wvs PHI 24-7 · Sat, Aug 15

CIN

FPI 1.7 · rank 1.717 · No nflverse EPA

  1. W@ HOU 20-6 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs TB 33-27 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. W@ PHI 30-13 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Wvs CHI 27-9 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Wvs DET 16-14 · Thu, Aug 13

Injuries

  • QuestionableJonathan Allen · Cincinnati Bengals
  • OutAndrei Iosivas · Cincinnati Bengals
  • QuestionableB.J. Hill · Cincinnati Bengals
  • Injured ReserveBrian Parker II · Cincinnati Bengals
  • Injured ReserveJa'Sir Taylor · Cincinnati Bengals
  • QuestionableChris Moore · Baltimore Ravens
  • QuestionableRonnie Stanley · Baltimore Ravens
  • QuestionableZion Young · Baltimore Ravens
  • QuestionableJohn Simpson · Baltimore Ravens
  • QuestionableMalaki Starks · Baltimore Ravens

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 2.6 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -2.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.