Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sat, Jan 2 · 11:00pm CT · SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA11:00pm CT
KC
Kansas City Chiefs · AFC West · 2-0 · Away
FPI 4.5 · rank 2.961 · No nflverse EPA
+1.5 (-110)
+105
LAC
Los Angeles Chargers · AFC West · 0-2 · Home
FPI -1.3 · rank -2.1 · No nflverse EPA
-1.5 (-110)
-125
SoFi Stadium is a dome. No weather in the number, and none on this card.Weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
LAC -1.5
LAC -1.5 (-110)
KC +1.5 (-110)
Model
KC -3.3
Edge 4.8 pts KC
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
KC
LAC -125 · KC +105
Total 45.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • LAC rating -1.3, KC rating 4.5.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to LAC.
  • Predicted margin is KC by 3.3.
  • Edge is 4.8 points toward KC.
  • Edge 4.8 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -5.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is KC, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

KC

FPI 4.5 · rank 2.961 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs IND 33-30 OT · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs DEN 31-10 · Mon, Sep 14
  3. Tvs SEA 9-9 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. L@ TB 16-15 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Lvs LAR 20-12 · Sat, Aug 15

LAC

FPI -1.3 · rank -2.1 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs LV 26-14 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Lvs ARI 26-14 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Lvs LAR 20-18 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. Lvs SF 41-17 · Thu, Aug 20
  5. W@ HOU 27-7 · Thu, Aug 13

Injuries

  • DoubtfulDalvin Tomlinson · Los Angeles Chargers
  • QuestionableElijah Molden · Los Angeles Chargers
  • QuestionableDerwin James Jr. · Los Angeles Chargers
  • QuestionableBrenen Thompson · Los Angeles Chargers
  • QuestionableTuli Tuipulotu · Los Angeles Chargers
  • QuestionableL'Jarius Sneed · Kansas City Chiefs
  • QuestionableChris Jones · Kansas City Chiefs
  • QuestionableFelix Anudike-Uzomah · Kansas City Chiefs
  • Injured ReserveCooper McDonald · Kansas City Chiefs
  • OutOmarr Norman-Lott · Kansas City Chiefs

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 4.8 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -5.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML