Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
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Sat, Jan 2 · 11:00pm CT · Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL11:00pm CT
LAR
Los Angeles Rams · NFC West · 1-1 · Away
FPI 4.7 · rank 2.831 · No nflverse EPA
-4.5 (-110)
-205
TB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · NFC South · 0-2 · Home
FPI -1.1 · rank -0.667 · No nflverse EPA
+4.5 (-110)
+170
Raymond James Stadium at kickoff: 80°F, wind 7 mph, gusts 7 mph, 47% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
LAR -4.5
TB +4.5 (-110)
LAR -4.5 (-110)
Model
LAR -3.3
Edge 1.2 pts TB
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
LAR
TB +170 · LAR -205
Total 48.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • TB rating -1.1, LAR rating 4.7.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to TB.
  • Predicted margin is LAR by 3.4.
  • Edge is 1.2 points toward TB.
  • Edge 1.2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -5.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is LAR, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

LAR

FPI 4.7 · rank 2.831 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs NYG 28-6 · Mon, Sep 21
  2. Lvs SF 27-7 · Thu, Sep 10
  3. W@ LAC 20-18 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. Wvs NO 34-0 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. W@ KC 20-12 · Sat, Aug 15

TB

FPI -1.1 · rank -0.667 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs CLE 23-19 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ CIN 33-27 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. L@ JAX 19-0 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Wvs KC 16-15 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. W@ NYJ 24-16 · Fri, Aug 14

Injuries

  • QuestionableRueben Bain Jr. · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • QuestionableJosiah Trotter · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • QuestionableAnthony Nelson · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Injured ReserveJosh Hayes · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Injured ReserveMohamed Kamara · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • QuestionableKamren Kinchens · Los Angeles Rams
  • QuestionableNate Landman · Los Angeles Rams
  • QuestionableJordan Whittington · Los Angeles Rams
  • Injured ReserveRonnie Rivers · Los Angeles Rams
  • QuestionableColby Parkinson · Los Angeles Rams

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 1.2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -5.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML