Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sat, Jan 2 · 11:00pm CT · EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL11:00pm CT
WSH
Washington Commanders · NFC East · 0-2 · Away
FPI -3.2 · rank -1.419 · No nflverse EPA
+3.5 (-110)
+154
JAX
Jacksonville Jaguars · AFC South · 1-1 · Home
FPI 2.6 · rank 1.607 · No nflverse EPA
-3.5 (-110)
-185
EverBank Stadium at kickoff: 82°F, wind 5 mph, gusts 10 mph, 43% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
JAX -3.5
JAX -3.5 (-110)
WSH +3.5 (-110)
Model
JAX -8.2
Edge 4.7 pts JAX
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
JAX
JAX -185 · WSH +154
Total 48.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • JAX rating 2.6, WSH rating -3.2.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to JAX.
  • Predicted margin is JAX by 8.2.
  • Edge is 4.7 points toward JAX.
  • Edge 4.7 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 5.8; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is JAX, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

WSH

FPI -3.2 · rank -1.419 · No nflverse EPA

  1. L@ DAL 37-20 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ PHI 24-22 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. L@ BAL 41-3 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. L@ DET 17-13 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Wvs MIA 20-7 · Fri, Aug 14

JAX

FPI 2.6 · rank 1.607 · No nflverse EPA

  1. L@ DEN 20-13 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs CLE 34-10 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Wvs TB 19-0 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Lvs CAR 34-17 · Fri, Aug 21
  5. W@ NO 24-20 · Sat, Aug 15

Injuries

  • QuestionableLeQuint Allen Jr. · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableDaVon Hamilton · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableCole Van Lanen · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableRobert Hainsey · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableJakobi Meyers · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableJeremy Reaves · Washington Commanders
  • QuestionableLeo Chenal · Washington Commanders
  • QuestionableFrankie Luvu · Washington Commanders
  • QuestionableCharles Omenihu · Washington Commanders
  • QuestionableTyler Owens · Washington Commanders

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 4.7 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 5.8; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

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