Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Sun, Jan 3 · 12:00pm CT · Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH · FOX12:00pm CT
IND
Indianapolis Colts · AFC South · 0-2 · Away
FPI -1.1 · rank 0.301 · No nflverse EPA
-2.5 (-110)
-135
CLE
Cleveland Browns · AFC North · 1-1 · Home
FPI -6.2 · rank -5.752 · No nflverse EPA
+2.5 (-110)
+114
Huntington Bank Field at kickoff: 46°F, wind 19 mph, gusts 25 mph, 16% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
IND -2.5
CLE +2.5 (-110)
IND -2.5 (-110)
IND -2.5 (-110)
Model
IND -2.8
Edge 0.3 pts IND
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
IND
CLE +114 · IND -135
Total 43.5 — no O/U pick
Total 43.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- CLE rating -6.2, IND rating -1.1.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to CLE.
- Predicted margin is IND by 2.8.
- Edge is 0.3 points toward IND.
- Edge 0.3 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -5.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is IND, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
IND
- L@ KC 33-30 OT · Sun, Sep 20
- Lvs BAL 41-23 · Sun, Sep 13
- Lvs DET 25-16 · Sat, Aug 29
- Lvs ATL 34-6 · Sat, Aug 22
- T@ NE 13-13 · Thu, Aug 13
CLE
- W@ TB 23-19 · Sun, Sep 20
- L@ JAX 34-10 · Sun, Sep 13
- Wvs NE 37-13 · Thu, Aug 27
- Lvs BUF 31-7 · Sat, Aug 22
- L@ CHI 34-10 · Sat, Aug 15
Injuries
- QuestionableTyson Campbell · Cleveland Browns
- QuestionableQuincy Williams · Cleveland Browns
- QuestionableTytus Howard · Cleveland Browns
- QuestionableMason Graham · Cleveland Browns
- QuestionableGrant Delpit · Cleveland Browns
- QuestionableAshton Dulin · Indianapolis Colts
- QuestionableCharvarius Ward · Indianapolis Colts
- OutAlec Pierce · Indianapolis Colts
- Injured ReserveMicheal Clemons · Indianapolis Colts
- Injured ReserveCarson Towt · Indianapolis Colts
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Edge 0.3 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -5.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.