Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Sat, Jan 9 · 11:00pm CT · Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC11:00pm CT
ATL
Atlanta Falcons · NFC South · 0-2 · Away
FPI -5.2 · rank -4.52 · No nflverse EPA
+2.5 (-110)
+114
CAR
Carolina Panthers · NFC South · 1-1 · Home
FPI -1.4 · rank -0.828 · No nflverse EPA
-2.5 (-110)
-135
Bank of America Stadium at kickoff: 55°F, wind 8 mph, gusts 17 mph, 13% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
CAR -2.5
CAR -2.5 (-110)
ATL +2.5 (-110)
ATL +2.5 (-110)
Model
CAR -6.2
Edge 3.7 pts CAR
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
CAR
CAR -135 · ATL +114
Total 41.5 — no O/U pick
Total 41.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- CAR rating -1.4, ATL rating -5.2.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to CAR.
- Predicted margin is CAR by 6.2.
- Edge is 3.7 points toward CAR.
- Edge 3.7 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 3.8; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is CAR, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
ATL
- Lvs CAR 34-3 · Sun, Sep 20
- L@ PIT 20-13 · Sun, Sep 13
- W@ MIA 17-12 · Fri, Aug 28
- W@ IND 34-6 · Sat, Aug 22
- Lvs DEN 27-7 · Fri, Aug 14
CAR
- W@ ATL 34-3 · Sun, Sep 20
- Lvs CHI 59-37 · Sun, Sep 13
- Wvs HOU 16-13 · Fri, Aug 28
- W@ JAX 34-17 · Fri, Aug 21
- L@ BUF 29-14 · Sat, Aug 15
Injuries
- QuestionableJaelan Phillips · Carolina Panthers
- QuestionableNick Scott · Carolina Panthers
- QuestionableDevin Lloyd · Carolina Panthers
- QuestionableJalen Coker · Carolina Panthers
- Injured ReserveJonathon Brooks · Carolina Panthers
- OutSamson Ebukam · Atlanta Falcons
- QuestionableBilly Bowman Jr. · Atlanta Falcons
- Injured ReserveA.J. Terrell Jr. · Atlanta Falcons
- Injured ReserveDa'Shawn Hand · Atlanta Falcons
- Injured ReserveCameron Williams · Atlanta Falcons
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Edge 3.7 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 3.8; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.