Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026
The Sunday Slate
Sat, Jan 9 · 11:00pm CT · U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN · Indoor11:00pm CT
CHI
Chicago Bears · NFC North · 1-1 · Away
FPI -0.5 · rank -1.034 · No nflverse EPA
+1.5 (-110)
+105
MIN
Minnesota Vikings · NFC North · 2-0 · Home
FPI 1.5 · rank -1.31 · No nflverse EPA
-1.5 (-110)
-125
U.S. Bank Stadium is a dome. No weather in the number, and none on this card.Weather is not in the formula.
Market vs model
Spread
MIN -1.5
MIN -1.5 (-110)
CHI +1.5 (-110)
CHI +1.5 (-110)
Model
MIN -4.4
Edge 2.9 pts MIN
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
MIN
MIN -125 · CHI +105
Total 43.5 — no O/U pick
Total 43.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket
Why
nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.
- MIN rating 1.5, CHI rating -0.5.
- Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Home field adds 2.4 to MIN.
- Predicted margin is MIN by 4.4.
- Edge is 2.9 points toward MIN.
- Edge 2.9 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
- Moneyline ticket is MIN, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
- No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.
Recent form
CHI
- Lvs MIN 9-3 · Sun, Sep 20
- W@ CAR 59-37 · Sun, Sep 13
- W@ TEN 24-15 · Sat, Aug 29
- L@ CIN 27-9 · Sat, Aug 22
- Wvs CLE 34-10 · Sat, Aug 15
MIN
- W@ CHI 9-3 · Sun, Sep 20
- Wvs GB 39-22 · Sun, Sep 13
- L@ DEN 34-6 · Fri, Aug 28
- Lvs BAL 13-3 · Sat, Aug 22
- W@ NYG 13-10 · Sat, Aug 15
Injuries
- QuestionableDeeJay Dallas · Minnesota Vikings
- QuestionableJalen Redmond · Minnesota Vikings
- QuestionableNick Samac · Minnesota Vikings
- QuestionableBrian O'Neill · Minnesota Vikings
- QuestionableJake Golday · Minnesota Vikings
- Injured ReserveAnthony Johnson Jr. · Chicago Bears
- OutShemar Turner · Chicago Bears
- OutNoah Sewell · Chicago Bears
- QuestionableKyle Monangai · Chicago Bears
- QuestionableTyson Bagent · Chicago Bears
Lock a ticket
Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.
Edge 2.9 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.