Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sat, Jan 9 · 11:00pm CT · Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD11:00pm CT
DAL
Dallas Cowboys · NFC East · 1-1 · Away
FPI 3.1 · rank 4.043 · No nflverse EPA
-1.5 (-110)
-122
WSH
Washington Commanders · NFC East · 0-2 · Home
FPI -3.2 · rank -1.419 · No nflverse EPA
+1.5 (-110)
+102
Northwest Stadium at kickoff: 49°F, wind 11 mph, gusts 24 mph, 11% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
DAL -1.5
WSH +1.5 (-110)
DAL -1.5 (-110)
Model
DAL -3.8
Edge 2.3 pts DAL
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
DAL
WSH +102 · DAL -122
Total 49.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • WSH rating -3.2, DAL rating 3.1.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to WSH.
  • Predicted margin is DAL by 3.8.
  • Edge is 2.3 points toward DAL.
  • Edge 2.3 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -6.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is DAL, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

DAL

FPI 3.1 · rank 4.043 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs WSH 37-20 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ NYG 28-20 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Lvs NO 27-24 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. W@ ARI 34-13 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. W@ SEA 17-7 · Sat, Aug 15

WSH

FPI -3.2 · rank -1.419 · No nflverse EPA

  1. L@ DAL 37-20 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ PHI 24-22 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. L@ BAL 41-3 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. L@ DET 17-13 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Wvs MIA 20-7 · Fri, Aug 14

Injuries

  • QuestionableJeremy Reaves · Washington Commanders
  • QuestionableLeo Chenal · Washington Commanders
  • QuestionableFrankie Luvu · Washington Commanders
  • QuestionableCharles Omenihu · Washington Commanders
  • QuestionableTyler Owens · Washington Commanders
  • DoubtfulMalik Hooker · Dallas Cowboys
  • QuestionableDeMarvion Overshown · Dallas Cowboys
  • OutCobie Durant · Dallas Cowboys
  • OutP.J. Locke · Dallas Cowboys
  • Injured ReserveMalik Davis · Dallas Cowboys

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 2.3 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -6.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML