Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sat, Jan 9 · 11:00pm CT · Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN · Indoor11:00pm CT
JAX
Jacksonville Jaguars · AFC South · 1-1 · Away
FPI 2.6 · rank 1.607 · No nflverse EPA
+1.5 (-110)
+102
IND
Indianapolis Colts · AFC South · 0-2 · Home
FPI -1.1 · rank 0.301 · No nflverse EPA
-1.5 (-110)
-122
Lucas Oil Stadium is a dome. No weather in the number, and none on this card.Weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
IND -1.5
IND -1.5 (-110)
JAX +1.5 (-110)
Model
JAX -1.3
Edge 2.8 pts JAX
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
Pass
IND -122 · JAX +102
Total 46.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • IND rating -1.1, JAX rating 2.6.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to IND.
  • Predicted margin is JAX by 1.3.
  • Edge is 2.8 points toward JAX.
  • Edge 2.8 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -3.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline is a pass — the predicted margin is inside 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

JAX

FPI 2.6 · rank 1.607 · No nflverse EPA

  1. L@ DEN 20-13 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Wvs CLE 34-10 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Wvs TB 19-0 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Lvs CAR 34-17 · Fri, Aug 21
  5. W@ NO 24-20 · Sat, Aug 15

IND

FPI -1.1 · rank 0.301 · No nflverse EPA

  1. L@ KC 33-30 OT · Sun, Sep 20
  2. Lvs BAL 41-23 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Lvs DET 25-16 · Sat, Aug 29
  4. Lvs ATL 34-6 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. T@ NE 13-13 · Thu, Aug 13

Injuries

  • QuestionableAshton Dulin · Indianapolis Colts
  • QuestionableCharvarius Ward · Indianapolis Colts
  • OutAlec Pierce · Indianapolis Colts
  • Injured ReserveMicheal Clemons · Indianapolis Colts
  • Injured ReserveCarson Towt · Indianapolis Colts
  • QuestionableLeQuint Allen Jr. · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableDaVon Hamilton · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableCole Van Lanen · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableRobert Hainsey · Jacksonville Jaguars
  • QuestionableJakobi Meyers · Jacksonville Jaguars

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 2.8 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -3.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

No moneyline ticket — predicted margin is inside 2 points.