Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sat, Jan 9 · 11:00pm CT · Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA11:00pm CT
MIA
Miami Dolphins · AFC East · 0-2 · Away
FPI -8 · rank -4.238 · No nflverse EPA
+10.5 (-110)
+425
NE
New England Patriots · AFC East · 1-1 · Home
FPI 2 · rank 0.447 · No nflverse EPA
-10.5 (-110)
-575
Gillette Stadium at kickoff: 42°F, wind 11 mph, gusts 21 mph, 29% chance of precip.Display only. The 2024–2025 check did not show wind moving the spread or the total past the closing number, so weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
NE -10.5
NE -10.5 (-110)
MIA +10.5 (-110)
Model
NE -12.5
Edge 2 pts NE
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
NE
NE -575 · MIA +425
Total 42.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • NE rating 2, MIA rating -8.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to NE.
  • Predicted margin is NE by 12.5.
  • Edge is 2 points toward NE.
  • Edge 2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 10.1; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is NE, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

MIA

FPI -8 · rank -4.238 · No nflverse EPA

  1. L@ SF 35-13 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ LV 27-13 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. Lvs ATL 17-12 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Lvs NYG 26-3 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. L@ WSH 20-7 · Fri, Aug 14

NE

FPI 2 · rank 0.447 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Wvs PIT 20-3 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ SEA 13-10 · Wed, Sep 9
  3. L@ CLE 37-13 · Thu, Aug 27
  4. Wvs PHI 24-21 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Tvs IND 13-13 · Thu, Aug 13

Injuries

  • Injured ReserveDell Pettus · New England Patriots
  • OutBrenden Schooler · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableEli Raridon · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableReggie Gilliam · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableMorgan Moses · New England Patriots
  • QuestionableRobert Beal Jr. · Miami Dolphins
  • QuestionableRyan Miller · Miami Dolphins
  • QuestionableJaylen Wright · Miami Dolphins
  • QuestionableChop Robinson · Miami Dolphins
  • QuestionableJuJu Brents · Miami Dolphins

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 10.1; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML