Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

CollegeNFL
← The board
Sat, Jan 9 · 11:00pm CT · Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA · Indoor11:00pm CT
TB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · NFC South · 0-2 · Away
FPI -1.1 · rank -0.667 · No nflverse EPA
-1.5 (-110)
-125
NO
New Orleans Saints · NFC South · 1-1 · Home
FPI -0.6 · rank -0.444 · No nflverse EPA
+1.5 (-110)
+105
Caesars Superdome is a dome. No weather in the number, and none on this card.Weather is not in the formula.

Market vs model

Spread
TB -1.5
NO +1.5 (-110)
TB -1.5 (-110)
Model
NO -2.9
Edge 4.4 pts NO
Full ratings
Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
ML / total
NO
NO +105 · TB -125
Total 43.5 — no O/U pick
CallNo ticket

Number from DraftKings, via ESPN.

Why

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

  • NO rating -0.6, TB rating -1.1.
  • Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Home field adds 2.4 to NO.
  • Predicted margin is NO by 2.9.
  • Edge is 4.4 points toward NO.
  • Edge 4.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 0.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
  • Moneyline ticket is NO, because the predicted margin clears 2 points.
  • No totals ticket. On 2024–2025 closing totals the EPA number was less accurate than the market, so the total stays on the card and off the ticket.

Recent form

TB

FPI -1.1 · rank -0.667 · No nflverse EPA

  1. Lvs CLE 23-19 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ CIN 33-27 · Sun, Sep 13
  3. L@ JAX 19-0 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. Wvs KC 16-15 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. W@ NYJ 24-16 · Fri, Aug 14

NO

FPI -0.6 · rank -0.444 · No nflverse EPA

  1. W@ BAL 24-17 · Sun, Sep 20
  2. L@ DET 31-30 OT · Sun, Sep 13
  3. W@ DAL 27-24 · Fri, Aug 28
  4. L@ LAR 34-0 · Sat, Aug 22
  5. Lvs JAX 24-20 · Sat, Aug 15

Injuries

  • QuestionableChristen Miller · New Orleans Saints
  • QuestionableChase Young · New Orleans Saints
  • QuestionableJonas Sanker · New Orleans Saints
  • Injured ReserveKelvin Banks Jr. · New Orleans Saints
  • QuestionableNathan Shepherd · New Orleans Saints
  • QuestionableRueben Bain Jr. · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • QuestionableJosiah Trotter · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • QuestionableAnthony Nelson · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Injured ReserveJosh Hayes · Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Injured ReserveMohamed Kamara · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Lock a ticket

Same rules as the board. ATS only when the edge clears 5 and the rating is not a placeholder. Moneyline only when the model has a winner by 2 or more. The lock stores the line now. CLV fills in after the game is final if the nflverse cache has a closing spread. Until then it stays blank.

Edge 4.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 0.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.

Writes this moneyline into the ledger. No point line, and no fake close.

Parlay deskAdd ML