Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

NFL board for the Sunday slate. Same desk, tighter numbers. A public power rating versus the posted line — not a lock, and not a claim we beat the close.

2026 ATS
0–0
Moneyline
20–5
Open tickets
23
This weekAFCNFC
Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10Week 11Week 12Week 13Week 14Week 15Week 16Week 17Week 18

2026 · Week 15 · 11 games shown · 2 ATS tickets · fetched 4:09:45 AM CT · ESPN NFL public scoreboard and FPI

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

Thu, Dec 17 · 7:15pm CT · Inglewood, CA · Prime Video7:15pm CT
SF
San Francisco · NFC West · 2-0
+2.5
+120
LAC
Los Angeles · AFC West · 0-2 · H
-2.5
-142
ATS SF +2.5
Model +6.2 vs Vegas -2.5 home.
ML: SF +120 · Total 47.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 8.7 pts vs the posted number. (Rating gap -8.6; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge8.7 ptsStrongESPN FPI
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Sat, Dec 19 · 7:20pm CT · Orchard Park, NY · CBS7:20pm CT
CHI
Chicago · NFC North · 1-1
+3.5
+154
BUF
Buffalo · AFC East · 2-0 · H
-3.5
-185
ATS BUF -3.5
Model -8.6 vs Vegas -3.5 home.
ML: BUF -185 · Total 51.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 5.1 pts vs the posted number. (Rating gap 6.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge5.1 ptsLeanESPN FPI
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Sun, Dec 20 · 12:00pm CT · Green Bay, WI · FOX12:00pm CT
MIA
Miami · AFC East · 0-2
+10.5
+470
GB
Green Bay · NFC North · 1-1 · H
-10.5
-650
No bet / too close
Model -10.9 vs market -10.5 (home).
ML: GB -650 · Total 45.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 0.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 8.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge0.4 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
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Sun, Dec 20 · 12:00pm CT · Nashville, TN · CBS12:00pm CT
IND
Indianapolis · AFC South · 0-2
-1.5
-125
TEN
Tennessee · AFC South · 0-2 · H
+1.5
+105
No bet / too close
Model +1.3 vs market +1.5 (home).
ML: no bet · Total 47.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 0.2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -3.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge0.2 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
DetailsDeep dive
Sun, Dec 20 · 12:00pm CT · East Rutherford, NJ · CBS12:00pm CT
CLE
Cleveland · AFC North · 1-1
+4.5
+170
NYG
New York · NFC East · 1-1 · H
-4.5
-205
No bet / too close
Model -2 vs market -4.5 (home).
ML: NYG -205 · Total 40.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 2.5 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -0.4; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge2.5 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
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Sun, Dec 20 · 12:00pm CT · Pittsburgh, PA · CBS12:00pm CT
BAL
Baltimore · AFC North · 1-1
-2.5
-148
PIT
Pittsburgh · AFC North · 1-1 · H
+2.5
+124
No bet / too close
Model +4.5 vs market +2.5 (home).
ML: BAL -148 · Total 46.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -6.9; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge2 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
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Sun, Dec 20 · 12:00pm CT · Charlotte, NC · FOX12:00pm CT
CIN
Cincinnati · AFC North · 2-0
-2.5
-148
CAR
Carolina · NFC South · 1-1 · H
+2.5
+124
No bet / too close
Model +0.7 vs market +2.5 (home).
ML: no bet · Total 47.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 1.8 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -3.1; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge1.8 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
DetailsDeep dive
Sun, Dec 20 · 12:00pm CT · Houston, TX · CBS12:00pm CT
JAX
Jacksonville · AFC South · 1-1
+3
+130
HOU
Houston · AFC South · 0-2 · H
-3
-155
No bet / too close
Model -0.7 vs market -3 (home).
ML: no bet · Total 43.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 2.3 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -1.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge2.3 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
DetailsDeep dive
Sun, Dec 20 · 3:05pm CT · Glendale, AZ · FOX3:05pm CT
NYJ
New York · AFC East · 1-1
+1.5
-110
ARI
Arizona · NFC West · 1-1 · H
-1.5
-110
No bet / too close
Model -0.5 vs market -1.5 (home).
ML: no bet · Total 41.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 1 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -1.9; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge1 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
DetailsDeep dive
Sun, Dec 20 · 3:25pm CT · Las Vegas, NV · CBS3:25pm CT
DEN
Denver · AFC West · 1-1
-4.5
-205
LV
Las Vegas · AFC West · 2-0 · H
+4.5
+170
No bet / too close
Model +0.3 vs market +4.5 (home).
ML: no bet · Total 41.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 4.2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -2.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge4.2 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
DetailsDeep dive
Mon, Dec 21 · 7:15pm CT · Kansas City, MO · ESPN7:15pm CT
NE
New England · AFC East · 1-1
+2.5
+120
KC
Kansas City · AFC West · 2-0 · H
-2.5
-142
No bet / too close
Model -4.8 vs market -2.5 (home).
ML: KC -142 · Total 45.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 2.3 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 2.4; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge2.3 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
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