Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

NFL board for the Sunday slate. Same desk, tighter numbers. A public power rating versus the posted line — not a lock, and not a claim we beat the close.

CollegeNFL
2026 ATS
0–0
Moneyline
20–5
Open tickets
23
This weekAFCNFC
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2026 · Week 4 · 11 games shown · 1 ATS tickets · fetched 4:09:30 AM CT · ESPN NFL public scoreboard and FPI

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

Sun, Oct 4 · 8:30am CT · London · NFL Net · Neutral8:30am CT
IND
Indianapolis · AFC South · 0-2
-4.5
-205
WSH
Washington · NFC East · 0-2
+4.5
+170
No bet / too close
Model +2.1 vs market +4.5 (home).
ML: IND -205 · Total 46.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 2.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -2.1; neutral site (no home field)). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge2.4 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
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Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00pm CT · Chicago, IL · FOX12:00pm CT
NYJ
New York · AFC East · 1-1
+3.5
+145
CHI
Chicago · NFC North · 1-1 · H
-3.5
-175
No bet / too close
Model -5.1 vs market -3.5 (home).
ML: CHI -175 · Total 43.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 1.6 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 2.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge1.6 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
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Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00pm CT · East Rutherford, NJ · CBS12:00pm CT
ARI
Arizona · NFC West · 1-1
+2.5
+120
NYG
New York · NFC East · 1-1 · H
-2.5
-142
No bet / too close
Model -0.9 vs market -2.5 (home).
ML: no bet · Total 43.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 1.6 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -1.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge1.6 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
DetailsDeep dive
Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00pm CT · Philadelphia, PA · FOX12:00pm CT
LAR
Los Angeles · NFC West · 1-1
-2.5
-135
PHI
Philadelphia · NFC East · 2-0 · H
+2.5
+114
No bet / too close
Model +0.8 vs market +2.5 (home).
ML: no bet · Total 45.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 1.7 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -3.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge1.7 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
DetailsDeep dive
Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00pm CT · Tampa, FL · FOX12:00pm CT
GB
Green Bay · NFC North · 1-1
-1.5
-118
TB
Tampa Bay · NFC South · 0-2 · H
+1.5
-102
No bet / too close
Model -0.8 vs market +1.5 (home).
ML: no bet · Total 45.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 2.3 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -1.6; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge2.3 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
DetailsDeep dive
Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00pm CT · Houston, TX · FOX12:00pm CT
DAL
Dallas · NFC East · 1-1
+3
+136
HOU
Houston · AFC South · 0-2 · H
-3
-162
No bet / too close
Model -0.2 vs market -3 (home).
ML: no bet · Total 47.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 2.8 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -2.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge2.8 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
DetailsDeep dive
Sun, Oct 4 · 3:05pm CT · Minneapolis, MN · FOX3:05pm CT
MIA
Miami · AFC East · 0-2
+10.5
+490
MIN
Minnesota · NFC North · 2-0 · H
-10.5
-675
No bet / too close
Model -11.9 vs market -10.5 (home).
ML: MIN -675 · Total 42.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 1.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 9.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge1.4 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
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Sun, Oct 4 · 3:25pm CT · Santa Clara, CA · CBS3:25pm CT
DEN
Denver · AFC West · 1-1
+4.5
+170
SF
San Francisco · NFC West · 2-0 · H
-4.5
-205
ATS SF -4.5
Model -10 vs Vegas -4.5 home.
ML: SF -205 · Total 45.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 5.5 pts vs the posted number. (Rating gap 7.6; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge5.5 ptsLeanESPN FPI
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Sun, Oct 4 · 3:25pm CT · Seattle, WA · CBS3:25pm CT
LAC
Los Angeles · AFC West · 0-2
+6.5
+235
SEA
Seattle · NFC West · 2-0 · H
-6.5
-290
No bet / too close
Model -6.5 vs market -6.5 (home).
ML: SEA -290 · Total 42.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 0 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 4.1; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge0 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
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Sun, Oct 4 · 7:20pm CT · Charlotte, NC · NBC7:20pm CT
DET
Detroit · NFC North · 1-1
-3
-155
CAR
Carolina · NFC South · 1-1 · H
+3
+130
No bet / too close
Model +1.3 vs market +3 (home).
ML: no bet · Total 49.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 1.7 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -3.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge1.7 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
DetailsDeep dive
Mon, Oct 5 · 7:15pm CT · New Orleans, LA · ESPN7:15pm CT
ATL
Atlanta · NFC South · 0-2
+3.5
+154
NO
New Orleans · NFC South · 1-1 · H
-3.5
-185
No bet / too close
Model -7 vs market -3.5 (home).
ML: NO -185 · Total 45.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 3.5 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 4.6; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge3.5 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
DetailsDeep diveParlay deskAdd a leg