Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

NFL board for the Sunday slate. Same desk, tighter numbers. A public power rating versus the posted line — not a lock, and not a claim we beat the close.

2026 ATS
0–0
Moneyline
20–5
Open tickets
23
This weekAFCNFC
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2026 · Week 4 · 11 games shown · 1 ATS tickets · fetched 4:09:30 AM CT · ESPN NFL public scoreboard and FPI

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

Thu, Oct 1 · 7:15pm CT · Cleveland, OH · Prime Video7:15pm CT
PIT
Pittsburgh · AFC North · 1-1
-3
-155
CLE
Cleveland · AFC North · 1-1 · H
+3
+130
No bet / too close
Model +1 vs market +3 (home).
ML: no bet · Total 38.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 2 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -3.4; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge2 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
DetailsDeep dive
Sun, Oct 4 · 8:30am CT · London · NFL Net · Neutral8:30am CT
IND
Indianapolis · AFC South · 0-2
-4.5
-205
WSH
Washington · NFC East · 0-2
+4.5
+170
No bet / too close
Model +2.1 vs market +4.5 (home).
ML: IND -205 · Total 46.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 2.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -2.1; neutral site (no home field)). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge2.4 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
DetailsDeep diveParlay deskAdd a leg
Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00pm CT · Orchard Park, NY · CBS12:00pm CT
NE
New England · AFC East · 1-1
+5.5
+205
BUF
Buffalo · AFC East · 2-0 · H
-5.5
-250
No bet / too close
Model -6.1 vs market -5.5 (home).
ML: BUF -250 · Total 49.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 0.6 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 3.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge0.6 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
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Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00pm CT · Chicago, IL · FOX12:00pm CT
NYJ
New York · AFC East · 1-1
+3.5
+145
CHI
Chicago · NFC North · 1-1 · H
-3.5
-175
No bet / too close
Model -5.1 vs market -3.5 (home).
ML: CHI -175 · Total 43.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 1.6 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 2.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge1.6 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
DetailsDeep diveParlay deskAdd a leg
Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00pm CT · Cincinnati, OH · CBS12:00pm CT
JAX
Jacksonville · AFC South · 1-1
+3
+136
CIN
Cincinnati · AFC North · 2-0 · H
-3
-162
No bet / too close
Model -1.4 vs market -3 (home).
ML: no bet · Total 49.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 1.6 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -1; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge1.6 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
DetailsDeep dive
Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00pm CT · Baltimore, MD · CBS12:00pm CT
TEN
Tennessee · AFC South · 0-2
+10.5
+440
BAL
Baltimore · AFC North · 1-1 · H
-10.5
-600
No bet / too close
Model -11.2 vs market -10.5 (home).
ML: BAL -600 · Total 44.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 0.8 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 8.9; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge0.8 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
DetailsDeep diveParlay deskAdd a leg
Sun, Oct 4 · 12:00pm CT · Houston, TX · FOX12:00pm CT
DAL
Dallas · NFC East · 1-1
+3
+136
HOU
Houston · AFC South · 0-2 · H
-3
-162
No bet / too close
Model -0.2 vs market -3 (home).
ML: no bet · Total 47.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 2.8 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -2.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge2.8 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
DetailsDeep dive
Sun, Oct 4 · 3:05pm CT · Minneapolis, MN · FOX3:05pm CT
MIA
Miami · AFC East · 0-2
+10.5
+490
MIN
Minnesota · NFC North · 2-0 · H
-10.5
-675
No bet / too close
Model -11.9 vs market -10.5 (home).
ML: MIN -675 · Total 42.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 1.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 9.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge1.4 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
DetailsDeep diveParlay deskAdd a leg
Sun, Oct 4 · 3:25pm CT · Las Vegas, NV · CBS3:25pm CT
KC
Kansas City · AFC West · 2-0
-6
-250
LV
Las Vegas · AFC West · 2-0 · H
+6
+205
No bet / too close
Model +5.1 vs market +6 (home).
ML: KC -250 · Total 45.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 0.9 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -7.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge0.9 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
DetailsDeep diveParlay deskAdd a leg
Sun, Oct 4 · 3:25pm CT · Santa Clara, CA · CBS3:25pm CT
DEN
Denver · AFC West · 1-1
+4.5
+170
SF
San Francisco · NFC West · 2-0 · H
-4.5
-205
ATS SF -4.5
Model -10 vs Vegas -4.5 home.
ML: SF -205 · Total 45.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 5.5 pts vs the posted number. (Rating gap 7.6; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge5.5 ptsLeanESPN FPI
DetailsDeep diveParlay deskAdd a leg
Sun, Oct 4 · 3:25pm CT · Seattle, WA · CBS3:25pm CT
LAC
Los Angeles · AFC West · 0-2
+6.5
+235
SEA
Seattle · NFC West · 2-0 · H
-6.5
-290
No bet / too close
Model -6.5 vs market -6.5 (home).
ML: SEA -290 · Total 42.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 0 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 4.1; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge0 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
DetailsDeep diveParlay deskAdd a leg