Clark desk · DallasThursday, September 24, 2026

The Sunday Slate

NFL board for the Sunday slate. Same desk, tighter numbers. A public power rating versus the posted line — not a lock, and not a claim we beat the close.

2026 ATS
0–0
Moneyline
8–3
Open tickets
15
This weekAFCNFC
Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10Week 11Week 12Week 13Week 14Week 15Week 16Week 17Week 18

2026 · Week 12 · 16 games shown · 2 ATS tickets · fetched 3:10:57 AM CT · ESPN NFL public scoreboard and FPI

nflverse enrichment is off. There is no ratings cache, so these numbers are ESPN FPI only. Run npm run nfl:refresh.

Wed, Nov 25 · 7:00pm CT · Inglewood, CA · Netflix7:00pm CT
GB
Green Bay · NFC North · 1-1
+4.5
+185
LAR
Los Angeles · NFC West · 1-1 · H
-4.5
-225
No bet / too close
Model -6.6 vs market -4.5 (home).
ML: LAR -225 · Total 48.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 2.1 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 4.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge2.1 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
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Thu, Nov 26 · 12:00pm CT · Detroit, MI · CBS12:00pm CT
CHI
Chicago · NFC North · 1-1
+2.5
+120
DET
Detroit · NFC North · 1-1 · H
-2.5
-142
No bet / too close
Model -5.3 vs market -2.5 (home).
ML: DET -142 · Total 52.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 2.8 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 2.9; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge2.8 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
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Thu, Nov 26 · 3:30pm CT · Arlington, TX · FOX3:30pm CT
PHI
Philadelphia · NFC East · 2-0
+1.5
+105
DAL
Dallas · NFC East · 1-1 · H
-1.5
-125
No bet / too close
Model -4 vs market -1.5 (home).
ML: DAL -125 · Total 49.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 2.5 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 1.6; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge2.5 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
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Thu, Nov 26 · 7:20pm CT · Orchard Park, NY · NBC7:20pm CT
KC
Kansas City · AFC West · 2-0
+2.5
+124
BUF
Buffalo · AFC East · 2-0 · H
-2.5
-148
No bet / too close
Model -3.6 vs market -2.5 (home).
ML: BUF -148 · Total 50.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 1.1 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 1.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge1.1 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
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Fri, Nov 27 · 2:00pm CT · Pittsburgh, PA · Prime Video2:00pm CT
DEN
Denver · AFC West · 1-1
-1.5
-122
PIT
Pittsburgh · AFC North · 1-1 · H
+1.5
+102
No bet / too close
Model +0.1 vs market +1.5 (home).
ML: no bet · Total 39.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 1.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -2.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge1.4 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
DetailsDeep dive
Sun, Nov 29 · 12:00pm CT · Cincinnati, OH · CBS12:00pm CT
NO
New Orleans · NFC South · 1-1
+6.5
+230
CIN
Cincinnati · AFC North · 2-0 · H
-6.5
-285
No bet / too close
Model -4.6 vs market -6.5 (home).
ML: CIN -285 · Total 48.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 1.9 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 2.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge1.9 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
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Sun, Nov 29 · 12:00pm CT · Cleveland, OH · FOX12:00pm CT
LV
Las Vegas · AFC West · 2-0
+1.5
+102
CLE
Cleveland · AFC North · 1-1 · H
-1.5
-122
No bet / too close
Model +0.8 vs market -1.5 (home).
ML: no bet · Total 39.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 2.3 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -3.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge2.3 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
DetailsDeep dive
Sun, Nov 29 · 12:00pm CT · Indianapolis, IN · FOX12:00pm CT
NYG
New York · NFC East · 1-1
+2.5
+114
IND
Indianapolis · AFC South · 0-2 · H
-2.5
-135
ATS IND -2.5
Model -7.9 vs Vegas -2.5 home.
ML: IND -135 · Total 47.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 5.4 pts vs the posted number. (Rating gap 5.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge5.4 ptsLeanESPN FPI
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Sun, Nov 29 · 12:00pm CT · Miami Gardens, FL · CBS12:00pm CT
NYJ
New York · AFC East · 1-1
+1.5
+105
MIA
Miami · AFC East · 0-2 · H
-1.5
-125
No bet / too close
Model +2.4 vs market -1.5 (home).
ML: NYJ +105 · Total 40.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 3.9 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -4.8; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge3.9 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
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Sun, Nov 29 · 12:00pm CT · Minneapolis, MN · FOX12:00pm CT
ATL
Atlanta · NFC South · 0-2
+4.5
+180
MIN
Minnesota · NFC North · 2-0 · H
-4.5
-218
No bet / too close
Model -9.1 vs market -4.5 (home).
ML: MIN -218 · Total 43.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 4.6 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 6.7; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge4.6 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
DetailsDeep diveParlay deskAdd a leg
Sun, Nov 29 · 12:00pm CT · Houston, TX · CBS12:00pm CT
BAL
Baltimore · AFC North · 1-1
+1.5
+102
HOU
Houston · AFC South · 0-2 · H
-1.5
-122
No bet / too close
Model +0.8 vs market -1.5 (home).
ML: no bet · Total 45.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 2.3 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -3.2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge2.3 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
DetailsDeep dive
Sun, Nov 29 · 3:05pm CT · Jacksonville, FL · CBS3:05pm CT
TEN
Tennessee · AFC South · 0-2
+5.5
+195
JAX
Jacksonville · AFC South · 1-1 · H
-5.5
-238
No bet / too close
Model -9.7 vs market -5.5 (home).
ML: JAX -238 · Total 45.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 4.3 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 7.4; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge4.3 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
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Sun, Nov 29 · 3:25pm CT · Glendale, AZ · FOX3:25pm CT
WSH
Washington · NFC East · 0-2
-4.5
-218
ARI
Arizona · NFC West · 1-1 · H
+4.5
+180
No bet / too close
Model -0.4 vs market +4.5 (home).
ML: no bet · Total 47.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 4.9 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -2; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge4.9 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
DetailsDeep dive
Sun, Nov 29 · 3:25pm CT · Santa Clara, CA · FOX3:25pm CT
SEA
Seattle · NFC West · 2-0
-1.5
-110
SF
San Francisco · NFC West · 2-0 · H
+1.5
-110
ATS SF +1.5
Model -6.9 vs Vegas +1.5 home.
ML: SF -110 · Total 46.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 8.4 pts vs the posted number. (Rating gap 4.5; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge8.4 ptsStrongESPN FPI
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Sun, Nov 29 · 7:20pm CT · Inglewood, CA · NBC7:20pm CT
NE
New England · AFC East · 1-1
+1.5
+105
LAC
Los Angeles · AFC West · 0-2 · H
-1.5
-125
No bet / too close
Model +0.9 vs market -1.5 (home).
ML: no bet · Total 45.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 2.4 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap -3.3; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge2.4 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
DetailsDeep dive
Mon, Nov 30 · 7:15pm CT · Tampa, FL · ESPN7:15pm CT
CAR
Carolina · NFC South · 1-1
+3.5
+164
TB
Tampa Bay · NFC South · 0-2 · H
-3.5
-198
No bet / too close
Model -2.7 vs market -3.5 (home).
ML: TB -198 · Total 44.5 — no O/U pick
Edge 0.8 pts — inside the 5-pt no-bet band. (Rating gap 0.3; home field +2.4). Fuel: ESPN FPI. nflverse enrichment is off.
Edge0.7 ptsNo ticketESPN FPI
DetailsDeep diveParlay deskAdd a leg